Canadian Funding Corp Reviews CMHC Affordable Housing Reports

Canada’s resale housing market recovered lost ground in the second quarter and is poised to stabilize for the remainder of 2009, after a very slow start to the year, according to the Royal LePage Market Survey Forecast and House Price Survey released today.  As the economy begins to stabilize and consumer confidence improves, house prices are expected to appreciate slightly in much of eastern and central Canada.   Greater than national average price declines are predicted for the western cities that saw the greatest price inflation earlier in the decade, including Edmonton, Calgary and Vancouver.

“Given the grim shape that Canada’s real estate market was in this past winter, the turnaround we have witnessed in the second quarter is really quite remarkable.  We believe this improvement represents a sustainable change across the country. While seasonally weaker conditions are to be expected in the fall, the plucky Canadian real estate market is stabilizing and a healthy level of activity is forecast for the second half of 2009,” said Phil Soper, president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.

During the second quarter, average house prices across most Canadian markets began to appreciate, recovering from the lows experienced during the winter months. Average national prices remain slightly behind those posted during the same period in 2008. Of the housing types surveyed, the price of detached bungalows declined to $327,964 (-3.5 per cent), two storey property prices decreased to $392,378 (-3.7 per cent), and standard condominiums price points fell slightly to $237,112 (-3.8 per cent), year-over-year.

Soper observed, “With our industry’s busiest quarter behind us, we feel comfortable revising our 2009 forecast to the positive. When the anticipated market decline struck last winter, it was with greater speed and intensity than predicted, but the strength of the rebound was equally surprising.  If general economic conditions continue to improve, as we expect they will, 2009 will be characterized as a period of moderate housing market correction after several years of above-average price growth.”

The 2009 national average house price is forecast to decline marginally by 2.0 percent, to $297,500 by end of year and unit sales are projected to fall slightly by 1.0 percent to 430,000.

“Improved affordability, driven by flat or lower home prices and inexpensive mortgage financing, has been the principle catalyst in this recovery.  Pent up demand is also a factor in the lift we see in the second quarter numbers.  For six months straddling the year’s beginning, buyers stayed away from the market in an understandable, emotional reaction to very unsettled global economic conditions.  Canadians appear to be stepping beyond these fears and are once again moving onto and up the home ownership ladder,” stated Soper.

In early 2009, the precipitous drop in unit sales remains the most dramatic indicator of the recession’s impact on Canada’s real estate market.  With spring, consumers appeared ready to believe the worst was behind them and returned to the market in force, driving increased activity across each housing type.  Couple this with historically low interest rates and leveling unemployment, Canada’s residential real estate market got back on track during the quarter.

Undergoing an inevitable cyclical correction, price adjustments can be seen with marked variances across Canada’s provinces.  As expected, British Columbia and Alberta posted the most significant price modifications, as home values in those markets retreated in the wake of several mid-decade years of unsustainable price inflation, and have now evolved to a more balanced state.   Prices appear to have stabilized and it is expected that these regions will continue to see improvements into 2010.  In particular, the impact of lower home prices has improved affordability to the point that people are buying homes again on the West Coast, where sales activity has increased substantially.

Alternatively in Atlantic Canada, homes continue to appreciate due to strong local economies, which have helped to shelter the region somewhat from the turbulence witnessed in other provinces. As well, the region’s generally moderate home prices have helped keep demand strong.   Newfoundland, in particular, stands out as a region that continues to see significant home price appreciation, as supply cannot keep up with the demand driven by vibrant and growing industries such as those in the province’s oil and gas sector.

Meanwhile, home prices in Toronto declined slightly in the second quarter, reflecting the national average trend.  In the early spring, it was first-time buyers who triggered the increased activity levels, now those looking to move up are also active in the market. Similar to the situation in other large cities in central Canada, the most desirable neighbourhoods experienced supply shortages, which put upward pressure on prices.

“Looking ahead to the second half of 2009, year-over-year price comparisons will likely appear increasingly more favourable. It is important to remember that the baseline for the latter half of 2008 was unusually low, particularly in the fourth quarter when the full impact of the global financial crisis was felt. Our expectation is that most Canadian regions will experience stable housing prices through into the spring of 2010,” concluded Soper.

REGIONAL MARKET SUMMARIES

Halifax
In Halifax, a stable economy has contributed to a healthy real estate market where average house prices increased modestly despite a slight dip in sales activity.   The market is beginning to pick up following a slow first quarter.  Pent up demand will see a return to a more active market in the last half of the 2009 with the anticipation of a slight boost in sales activity and average house prices growing at a leisurely pace.

Montreal
The housing market in Montreal experienced a solid second quarter, with average house prices for most property types expected to increase for the remainder of 2009.  Higher inventory levels resulted in balanced market conditions seeing the number of new listings equal to the number of sales.  Low interest and unemployment rates will help maintain the strength of the real estate market through to the end of the year.

Ottawa
Ottawa continues to remain a steady market for residential real estate, with sales activity in the second quarter coming out strong from a slow first quarter.  Ranked number two among Canada’s large cities for affordable real estate and coupled with low interest rates, all types of buyers were drawn to the market.  House prices are expected to remain stable throughout the remainder of year with numbers slightly higher than anticipated.

Toronto
In Toronto, the real estate market witnessed significant second quarter gains.  The return of consumer confidence and an upswing in spring market activity brought house prices and unit sales down as buyers emerged to take advantage of affordable properties and low lending rates.
As the market begins its transition from a buyer’s market to a balanced market, with indications of a seller’s market arising, it’s anticipated that the market will stabilize by the end of year.

Winnipeg
Winnipeg’s real estate market has remained relatively resilient in the second quarter with average house prices in key housing segments increasing from the first quarter of 2009.  Real estate in Winnipeg is modestly priced when compared to other cities in Canada, creating ideal conditions for buyers in the province.  Looking ahead, average house prices are anticipated to stabilize for the remainder of the year.

Regina
Regina’s real estate market started on the road to recovery in the second quarter of 2009 and is expected to further improve through the remainder of the year.  An increase in unit sales helped diminish the city’s high inventory levels as buyers are beginning to initiate deals.   Recovering manufacturing and resource sectors, new construction activity in Regina, and low interest rates have also helped to improve buyer confidence.

Calgary
With the economic downturn and the oil and gas industry struggling, the housing market in Calgary has been on the decline since 2008, after many years of price inflation at the beginning of the decade.  Quarter one of 2009 revealed some signs of price increases and stabilization in certain areas in Calgary, but the second quarter reveals fluctuations in the market. These price fluctuations are occurring across Calgary in all housing types with the market forecast predicting price reductions for the remainder of 2009.

Edmonton
Housing market conditions in Edmonton were characterized by lower inventory levels and moderate house price increases.  Buyer demand was strong during the second quarter as most buyers felt a sense of urgency to capitalize on the recent market conditions.  This has led to a slight tightening in Edmonton’s housing market with appreciation in average house prices expected for the last half of 2009.

Vancouver
Vancouver’s real estate market stabilized in the second quarter of 2009 following a price correction that started last fall moving towards a balance between supply and demand. Properties priced at, or below, market value are generating multiple offers from buyers. Average house prices throughout the last half of the year are expected to inch upwards, but increases will likely be in the low single digits.

Royal LePage’s quarterly House Price Survey shows the annual change of prices for key housing segments in select national markets. Click here to view the chart (.PDF).

The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most comprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of housing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast.  This release references an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price trends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities across the country.  A complete database of past and present surveys is available on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca.  Current figures will be updated following the complete tabulation of the data for the second quarter. A printable version of the second quarter 2009 survey will be available online on August 7, 2009.

Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of fair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts.  Historical data is available for some areas back to the early 1970s.

http://www.muchmormagazine.com/2009/07/canadian-housing-market-sees-bounce-back-from-awful-winter/

reviewed by Moishe Alexander, CFC CEO

Good National news from the Canadian Real Estate Association, says Moishe Alexander, CFC CEO:

OTTAWA – June 15th, 2009 – National resale housing market activity returned to pre-recession levels in May 2009. The rebound in activity is being led by an increase in transactions in some of the most expensive markets in the country, which is skewing the national average price upward. According to statistics released by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), actual (not seasonally adjusted) home sales via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) of Canadian real estate boards totaled 49,521 units in May 2009. This is less than one per cent below activity in the same month one year ago. Year-over-year declines have been shrinking since the beginning of the year.
The seasonal increase in activity continues to be stronger than normal. As a result, seasonally adjusted home sales rose eight per cent to 37,649 units in May compared to April. This marks the fourth consecutive monthly increase in seasonally adjusted activity. Seasonally adjusted activity in May was 43 per cent above where it stood in January 2009.
Seasonally adjusted sales were up on a monthly basis in about 70 per cent of local markets. Monthly activity gains in Toronto (nine per cent), Calgary (25 per cent), Montreal (10 per cent), Vancouver (eight per cent), and Edmonton (12 per cent) contributed most to the overall increase in monthly activity.
The national MLS® residential average sale price in May 2009 reached the highest monthly level on record. At $319,757, it was up fourth tenths of a percentage point from the previous record set in May 2008. Over the past four months, the national MLS® residential average price has recovered 16.4 per cent from the low in January. The average price for MLS® home sales climbed to new heights nationally, and in Saskatchewan, Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia. New records were posted in only 15 per cent of local markets in May, none of which are among the most active or expensive. The strong rebound in sales activity, not price, in Canada’s most expensive markets is driving up average prices nationally and in some provinces, just as a sharp decline in activity in these markets pushed average prices lower in late 2008.
The supply of homes coming onto the MLS® market continued to decelerate in May. Seasonally adjusted MLS® residential new listings edged lower by eight tenths of a percentage point to 65,070 units, the lowest level since December 2005. Seasonally adjusted new residential listings in May were 19 per cent below the peak reached one year ago.
With the number of sales rising strongly and new listings trending downward, the balance between supply and demand is firming up in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Ontario, and Quebec. This resulted in national sales activity as a percentage of new listings reaching the highest point since December 2007. Residential dollar volume for MLS® sales climbed 10 per cent from the previous month to reach $11.4 billion in May. This is more than 50 per cent above the low of $7.5 billion reported last January.
“Sales activity is now closer to the pre-recession peak than it is to the recent low point reached last January,” says Regina Broker Dale Ripplinger, President of The Canadian Real Estate Association. “Strengthening consumer confidence, low interest rates, and improved affordability are drawing buyers to the housing market across Canada,” he added.
“Fueled by a string of monthly increases in activity, the number of transactions in May reached the highest point since July 2008,” said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “Inventory levels are still high in many markets, but fewer new listings and rising sales activity suggests that the selection of homes available for sale may shrink as the year progresses. The supply of homes up for sale needs to be drawn down further before average price increases become more widespread among local markets.”
PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national MLS® sales information from the previous month. The Canadian Real Estate Association has previously released these separately.
CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighborhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.
MLS® is a co-operative marketing system used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 96,000 REALTORS® working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations. Further information can be found at www.crea.ca.
Click here for full report

http://torontoism.com/2009/06/15/national-resale-housing-continues-to-rise-in-may/

OTTAWA, June 10, 2009 — The average rental apartment vacancy rate in Canada’s 35 major centres¹ increased slightly to 2.7 per cent in April 2009, from 2.6 per cent in April 2008, according to the spring Rental Market Survey² released today by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

And this is very good news, Moishe Alexander says.

Mark Salerno, CMHC district manager explaines:

Completions of condominiums, which continue to attract renter households looking to move into homeownership are decreasing demand for rental housing. Also, some of the completed condos compete with rental units if they were purchased by investors who then rent them out. These two factors have put upward pressure on the vacancy rate,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist at CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre. “However, this has been balanced by higher levels of demand for rental housing.”

The results of CMHC’s spring survey reveal that the major centres with the lowest vacancy rates in April 2009 were Québec City (0.6 per cent), Regina (0.7 per cent), Winnipeg (0.9 per cent), Saguenay (1.1 per cent), and Trois-Rivières (1.1 per cent). With respect to British Columbia, only two centres had vacancy rates below two per cent; Victoria at 1.2 per cent and Vancouver at 1.9 per cent.

At the other end of the spectrum, the major centres with the highest vacancy rates were Windsor (15.5 per cent), St. Catharines – Niagara (5.3 per cent), and Abbotsford (4.8 per cent).

The highest average monthly rents for two-bedroom apartments in new and existing structures were in Vancouver ($1,154), Calgary ($1,106), Toronto ($1,093), Edmonton ($1,059), and Victoria ($1,043). Of all the major centres, these five were the only ones with average rents at or above $1,000. The lowest average monthly rents for two-bedroom apartments in new and existing structures were in Saguenay ($494), and Trois-Rivières ($512).

Year-over-year comparison of rents can be slightly misleading because rents in newly built structures tend to be higher than in existing buildings. However, excluding new structures provides a better indication of actual rent increases paid by tenants. Overall, the average rent for two-bedroom apartments in existing structures across Canada’s 35 major centres increased 2.9 per cent between April 2008 and April 2009. Rent increases were larger in Saskatoon (15.5 per cent) and in Regina (11.4 per cent).

CMHC’s spring Rental Market Survey also found that the average rental apartment availability rate in Canada’s 35 major centres was 5.0 per cent in April 2009, up slightly from 4.9 per cent in April 2008. A rental unit is considered available if the unit is vacant (physically unoccupied and ready for immediate rental), or if the existing tenant has given or received notice to move and a new tenant has not signed a lease. Availability rates were highest in Windsor (18.0 per cent), London (7.9 per cent), St. Catharines – Niagara (7.9 per cent), Guelph (7.0 per cent), and Sherbrooke (7.0 per cent). The lowest availability rates were in Winnipeg (1.4 per cent), Regina (1.8 per cent), and Victoria (2.5 per cent).

As Canada’s national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 60 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of quality, environmentally sustainable, and affordable homes — homes that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country.

1 Major centres are based on Statistics Canada Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) with the exception of the Ottawa – Gatineau CMA, which is treated as two centres for Rental Market Survey purposes and Charlottetown, which is a Census Agglomeration (CA).

2 CMHC’s Rental Market Survey is conducted twice a year in April and October, to provide vacancy, availability and rent information on privately initiated structures in all centres with populations of 10,000 and more across Canada. Reports are released in June and December.

The spring survey covers apartment and row structures containing at least three rental units, and unlike the fall survey does not report information on:

1. Smaller geographic zones within centres
2. Secondary rental market (rented condominium apartments, single detached, semi-detached, duplexes or accessory
   apartments).